There’s bound to be plenty of these available soon, but I just couldn’t wait. All times Eastern.
Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia will all be immediately called for Romney
Vermont will be immediately called for Obama
Virginia also closes. We’ll likely be waiting a long time for a call on this one. If it gets called earlier either way, that’s a sign the polls were wrong. Keep an eye on Montgomery County.
Score at 7:01 – 44 R, 3 O
West Virginia immediately called for Romney.
North Carolina closes. This one should be tight as well, so don’t expect an early call. It should eventually go to Romney. Keep an eye on New Hanover County.
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. This one is big. Romney will have a hard time winning without it, and if Obama wins it, it’s just about over. Obama is ahead by close to 4 points in the polls, so he looks poised for victory. Keep an eye on Stark County.
Score: 49 R, 3 O
MO, OK, MS, AL, TN immediately called for Romney.
ME, MA, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, IL immediately called for Obama.
Pennsylvania closes. Polls have tightened here, but there’s no reason to believe Obama will lose it. Romney is making a last ditch effort to move the state, because it’s his only option if he loses Ohio and Virginia. The networks will be timid on PA, but it should eventually fall into Obama. Watch Bucks County.
New Hampshire closes. Polls here show Obama with some momentum, but NH is notorious for being a hard state to poll. I wouldn’t be surprised by a Romney upset here. Should be tight either way. Watch Merrimack County.
Florida closes. This is a must win for Romney. He will struggle to find a winning combination without it, so if Obama wins FL, it’s most definitely over. That being said, the polls here are excruciatingly close; we may be headed for a recount. Watch Hillsborough County.
Score: 92 R, 75 O
Arkansas immediately called for Romney.
Score: 98 R, 75 O
AZ, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, TX, LA immediately called for Romney.
NY, RI immediately called for Obama, and probably NM too.
MN, WI, MI are favored for Obama, but may not be called right away, as the networks will be squeamish, especially since they have been touting these as “swing states.” On the other hand, if the poll truthers are right, then look to WI. Obama should win the state by 5, but if this becomes close, and they haven’t called Ohio yet, it might be time to worry.
Colorado closes. Obama has a very slight edge here, but I don’t expect this state to be called early. Should be a while. Watch Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties.
Score: 175 R, 113 O
MT and UT immediately called for Romney.
Nevada closes. Obama has opened up a big lead in early voting here, and some estimate that 70% of likely voters have already voted. I expect Nevada will be called for Obama pretty fast as a result.
Iowa closes. Obama has a small but robust lead here. Look to how things are playing out in nearby WI, MN, and OH. If Obama is doing well with the neighbors, expect Iowa to follow. Watch Cedar County.
If Obama is having a good night, we may be at the point now where I would be ready to call it for him. If he has OH, PA, WI, and NV by now, it’s over.
Score: 184 R, 113 O
Idaho immediately called for Romney.
WA, OR, CA, and HI immediately called for Obama.
Continue to watch OH, FL, VA, IA, CO, NH. Obama should already have NV, PA, WI, MI, and MN by now. If not, start to worry.
Score: 253 O, 188 R
Alaska immediately called for Romney.
By now, hopefully OH, IA, NH have been called for Obama, which would put him over the top. CO should follow soon after or be in this group as well.
NC should be called for Romney by now.
VA could be in limbo for most of the night.
We may never know who wins Florida, but at this point, it shouldn’t matter.
Score: 290 O, 206 R