I know that many of you have been expecting me to post on this subject for a while now.  This may be surprising, but I never really got that hot and bothered about.

Not that I agree in any way with the law (it’s ridiculous), and I am also not underestimating the impact of the law (heavy), but you have to understand things in an Arizona context.  In some regards, I found it somewhat ironic that nation wide opinion seems to be much more virulent than the local feeling.  Granted, the national media I follow has a liberal bend, and the local sources are admittedly more conservative, but I think that doesn’t quite explain the disparity.  There’s a certain amount of defeatism; something I’ll steal and call TIA (This Is Arizona).

The context is key here.

First, you have to understand that Arizona is not Alabama, regardless of what you may have heard.  Republicans here are of a much different species.  Not that racism doesn’t play a part in policy, but it’s not the driving force of the party.  Furthermore, social conservatives are not dominant.  This is Libertarian/Law-and-Order Conservative Land.  This is important.  The state can be pretty much divided up into about 4 regions, with about 5 general constituencies.

Phoenix and Maricopa County are hugely conservative.  There are two real blocks here: suburban middle to upper-class whites and hispanics, who are amazingly conservative in a Club for Growth kind of way (less taxes, less government), and poor Hispanics, who are predominantly Democrats and are your typical poor (more government) liberals.

Flagstaff and Sedona are hippie strongholds, and are very liberal.

Tucson and Pima County represents a pretty neutral mix of poor Hispanics, moderate suburban whites and Hispanics, and conservative upper class voters.

The rest of the state is rural ranchers and farmers, which is total Ron Paul territory, with some typical populist Democrats mixed in.

Now having said that, Phoenix and Tucson represent about 83% of the total population.  What this means practically is a lot of Republicans in state office, and I mean Republicans. TIA.

So when we talk about this immigration bill, in order to understand a typical Arizonans mind, you have to understand what’s also happened in that last year or two.

Arizona has a giant budget shortfall.  The state congress has responded by slashing education and social service spending by drastic amounts.  Only after 2 years of continuous cuts did a tax increase proposal pass congress, but it isn’t in effect yet.  That’s because the voters have to approve the tax increase because it didn’t get the 2/3 required votes in congress to pass normally.  Instead, we will effectively amend the state constitution to raise taxes. TIA.

The state congress recently allowed concealed weapons to be carried into bars, as long as you’re not drinking.  TIA.

The state house recently passed a birther-based requirement that presidential candidates must show proof of citizenship before being placed on the ballot.  TIA.

Not to be outdone by their bar-gun love relationship, the state congress also just eliminated the requirement to obtain a concealed weapons permit, a provision that even the guns rights activists I know don’t think is a good idea. TIA.

Now on top of all this, we get the immigration law.  To my mind, this is just another bad idea to come out of this government.  For others it may be a shocking development, but for me, and I suppose many Arizonans, it’s business as usual.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio was effectively carrying out the provisions in this law for about 2 years from 2007 to 2009, under what was called a 287(g) agreement with ICE.  Sheriff Joe was effectively able to act as a federal agent and enforce federal immigration laws.  This power was revoked in 2009 by the Obama Administration.

Sheriff Joe’s conduct during this time frame was the subject of a Pulitzer-Prize-winning series in the East Valley Tribune, cataloging federal violations of racial profiling standards and diversion of valuable police resources to petty, racially-charged “sweeps” of Hispanic neighborhoods and workplaces.

In fact, in one situation, from a New Yorker bio on Sheriff Joe, Arpaio put the lives of his officers at risk when they raided the Mesa city hall building at night, without informing the Mesa Police Department.

Living here, you know about all this.  You know that Russell Pearce will continue to put forth shitty legislation.  You know that no matter how many federal probes there are, no matter how many times Joe Arpaio abuses his power to attack his political enemies, and no matter how much money he wastes chasing low-level UDAs, America’s Toughest Sheriff will be re-elected.  You know that it doesn’t matter if Jon Kyl’s best legislative idea is to get rid of the penny, and it doesn’t matter if he lied about the health care bill, Jon Kyl will be re-elected.

At least until now, that is.

You see, the silver lining in all of this, and something that I can’t quite resist feeling good about, is that Arizona may have just turned blue.  Not today, and not tomorrow, but by 2012?  Maybe.  2016?  Probably.  2020?  Definitely.

Why?  It’s the demographics, stupid.

Arizona is currently 29% Hispanic, and rising fast.  Arizona also used to have the most conservative bloc of Hispanics in the country.  This year that will change.  This law will single-handedly shove, not push, but shove, Hispanics to the Democratic Party.  Pretty soon, you’ll see a 90%-10% split to democrats among Hispanics, which will remain for a generation.  This spells big losses for Republicans, especially when Arizona becomes majority Hispanic in 2020.

So take heart.  This is Arizona, but it may have just taken its first step to becoming California.

Tags: Arizona, immigration, Joe Arpaio, politics, Russell Pearce

This entry was posted on Monday, May 3rd, 2010 at 9:43 pm and is filed under Lots of Pulp. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.